Modeling current and future of biomass and carbon stocks associated with changes in land cover in the Amazon biome

Name: KAÍSE BARBOSA DE SOUZA

Publication date: 17/02/2020
Advisor:

Namesort descending Role
ALEXANDRE ROSA DOS SANTOS Advisor *
JOSÉ EDUARDO MACEDO PEZZOPANE Co-advisor *

Examining board:

Namesort descending Role
ALEXANDRE ROSA DOS SANTOS Advisor *
HENRIQUE MACHADO DIAS Internal Examiner *
JÉFERSON LUIZ FERRARI External Examiner *
JOÃO VITOR TOLEDO External Examiner *
TELMA MACHADO DE OLIVEIRA PELUZIO External Examiner *

Summary: The Amazon biome is notable for containing a large biodiversity and influence on regional and global climate, because it is of biomass and carbon stocks. However, these stocks are at risk due to changes in land cover driven by human activities. The objective of this study was to model the spatial distribution of Above-Ground Biomass (BAS) and current and future carbon stocks associated with changes in land cover in the Amazon biome. In this context, this research was divided into two steps. The first step refers to the analysis of the dynamics of land use and land cover over time through spatial modeling and projection of future scenario for the Amazon biome Amazon biome carried out in the Land Change Modeler (LCM) module. This analysis was based on land cover data from the MapBiomas project for the years 1985, 2014 and 2017 and associated with socioeconomic explanatory variables based on Cramer-V test. The second stage refers to the spatial distribution of BAS and current carbon stocks and future (2044) by vegetation types associated with changes in land cover. The spatial distribution of BAS was performed by using geostatistical techniques as main variable biomass sample plots and auxiliary variables as the native vegetation and annual average rainfall. Carbon stocks were calculated from BAS assuming that 1 Megagram (Mg) dry biomass equals 0.485 Mg C. The mapping information showed that the Forest Formation class occupied 3,844,800.75 km2 (91.20%) in 1985 and in 2014, there was a reduction to 3,452,129.25 km2 (81.89%). The pasture class had an area of 71,046.50 km2 (1.69%) and, in 2014, there was an expressive increase to 437,670.00 km2 (10.38%). The use and land cover 2044 points to a scenario WHERE the pasture class will occupy an area of 18.36% (773,907.00 km2) while the forest formation will take 73.91% (3,115,892.25 km2). The total stock of BAS stored in natural vegetation in 1985 was 112.67 Pg, in 2017 it represented a stock of 99.04 (Pentagram) Pg and, in 2044, it will have a stock of 90.09 Pg. With reference to total carbon stock from BAS, presented in 1985 Pg C 54.64, 2017, 48.03 Pg C and 2044 will be reduced resulting in a stock Pg C 43.69. The reduction of total biomass and carbon stock in 2017 and 2044 has been and will be respectively driven by deforestation, mainly due to the expansion of agricultural land. The simulations provided in this work constitute an important tool that can provide information for planning of land occupation in the region and implementation of pubic policies to the development and implementation of projects Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD), support the calculation of greenhouse gas emissions (GHG). The methodology can be adapted to other biomes.

Keywords: Land use, deforestation, rainforests, simulation, spatial analysis.

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